We are going to have more interest hikes as we want to tame the inflation and inevitably, a recession will follow. Many people say that consumer staples will do well but I want to present you with a different stock that we think it will do well. It’s called Upwork ($UPWK).
What do they do? It’s Uber ($UBER) of skilled people. Not carpentry although I think they might have some but mostly white-collar jobs like graphic design or finance.
Why do I think $UPWK is going to do well if and when we have a recession? Simple
- Recession is coming whether we like it or not. And often, it’s a self-fulfilling prophesy. So many people are saying it and because people how think it will happen, they will stop spending or hiring and because of it, we will get into a recession. Who are saying this?
- Former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff.
- Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk
- Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf
- Chuck Robbins, the CEO of Cisco
- Some 68% of chief financial officers
- Deutsche Bank economists
- Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital
- Layoffs are coming whether you like it or not…along with hiring freezes
- Rivian ($RIVN) planning layoffs
- Coinbase ($COIN) announced layoffs
- Netflix ($NFLX) annouced layoffs
- Most CEO’s are going to do layoffs if a recession hits
- Tesla ($TSLA)
- Gamestop ($GME) fired CFO and planning layoffs
- Oracle ($ORCL)
- the list goes on…
- With layoffs, they will rely on savings, UI or short/long-term gigs before they can land another job or some might decide to go become a freelancer all together. They can decide to be a driver for Uber or Lyft or they can find something at a platform like
- Upwork ($UPWK) – lost 60% of their value
- Toptal
- Fiverr ($FVRR) – lost 90% of their value
- Hubstaff Talent
- Credo
- Freelancer
- Outsoucely
- Textbroker
- Workhoppers
- Freeup
- PeoplePerHour
- Guru
- 99designs
Why do we like Upwork more than Fiverr when Fiverr seems to have a bigger upside? It’s because Fiverr is geared towards hiring freelancers for one-time projects (relatively short), while Upwork focuses on building long-term relationships between freelancers and clients so it’s on-going. And when you have a mortgage or rent to pay, you want something a bit more steady. Then again, maybe it’s worth investing in both rather than one or the other.
Conclusion: we think they have been beaten down and with a possible recession coming, I think Upwork (and maybe Fiverr, too), would be a good bet. But as we always say, do your own DD before making any investment decisions.